Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1. Personal consumption expenditures price indexes

Figure 2. Price indexes for subcomponents of personal consumption expenditures

Components of core prices

Figure 3. Spot and futures prices for crude oil

Series: Brent spot price and 24-month-ahead futures contracts

Horizon: January 4, 2019, to June 13, 2025

Description: A line chart with two curves over January 4, 2019, to June 13, 2025. Units are dollars per barrel. The data are weekly averages of daily data.

The Brent spot price series starts a bit below 60 and fluctuates between about 60 and 75 through 2019 until it falls sharply to nearly 20 by mid-2020. The series climbs steadily to and peaks at about 120 in mid-2022 and then slides to slightly above 80 by the start of 2023, ending at about 70 in June 2025, with two smaller peaks a bit above and below 90 in September 2023 and April 2024, respectively, and another peak at about 80 in January 2025. The 24-month-ahead futures contracts series, while a bit less volatile in its movements, largely follows the Brent spot price series. The series starts at around 60 and hovers between about 55 and 65 in 2019. It drops to about 40 by mid-2020 before rising steadily to about 90 in mid-2022 and declining to and hovering between about 70 and 80 through the start of 2025. It falls slightly to about 65 by June 2025.

Note: The data are weekly averages of daily data and extend through June 13, 2025.

Source: ICE Brent Futures via Bloomberg.

Figure 4. Spot prices for commodities

Figure 5. Nonfuel import price index

Figure 6. Prices paid indexes from manufacturing surveys

Figure 7. Measures of rental price inflation

Figure 8. Measures of inflation expectations

Figure 9. Inflation compensation implied by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

Series: 5-to-10-year and 5-year

Horizon: January 4, 2016, to June 16, 2025

Description: A line chart with two curves over January 4, 2016, to June 16, 2025. Units are percent, and the data are daily. The 5-to-10-year series begins around 1.7 in January 2016. It then steps down gradually to a bit below 1.5 in June 2016, rises to 2 in January 2017, and drops again to 1.8 in June 2017. The series then grows to about 2 in January 2018, moderates to about 1.5 by the end of February 2020, and then falls below 1 in March 2020 before returning to about 1.5 in April 2020. The series steadily climbs to about 2.5 by May 2021 and fluctuates between approximately 2 and 2.5 through mid-April 2022 before briefly hitting close to 2.8 in late April. The series then drops to just above 2 in late May 2022 and fluctuates between just below 2 and about 2.5 through May 2023 before increasing to above 2.5 in September 2023 and remaining there through November 2023. It then dips to about 2.1 in December 2023, climbs to around 2.4 by February 2024, and fluctuates between 2.2 and 2.5 until August, when it dips to between 2.1 and 2.2 until October 2024. The series swings up to nearly 2.5 in early November and then ticks down, fluctuating around 2.3 through December 2024. At the beginning of 2025, the series edges up and fluctuates between around 2.4 and 2.5 through February 2025 before falling to about 2.3 and hovering between 2.2 and 2.3 through the beginning of May. It then increases to and fluctuates around 2.4, ending just above 2.4 in mid-June 2025.

From early 2016 through February 2020, both series are nearly identical. The 5-year series subsequently falls to just above 0 by mid-March 2020 before jumping to over 2.7 in May 2021, surpassing the 5-to-10-year series. From there, the series fluctuates slightly, ramping up to more than 3 in November 2021, retreating slightly to about 2.8 by December 2021, and remaining around there through most of February 2022. In late February 2022, the series begins to rise, peaking around 3.5 in late March 2022. It drops briefly to below 3.3 in early April before increasing again to nearly 3.5 in late April 2022. From there, the series decreases to just below 3 in mid-May and remains roughly between 2.8 and just above 3 through mid-June 2022. The series then falls to slightly above 2 by the end of September 2022 before rebounding to over 2.5 in late October 2022. The series then follows the 5-to-10-year series closely until early March 2023, when it rises to nearly 2.8. Over the next three months, the series declines slowly past the 5-to-10-year series to just above 2 by mid-June 2023. The series increases and peaks around 2.4 by mid-October 2023. It fluctuates between just above 2 and nearly 2.5 until late July 2024, when it falls to around 2. The series rises to around 2.3 in October 2024 and crests around 2.4 in early November. It then fluctuates around 2.3 for the rest of 2024 before hovering just below 2.5 in January 2025. The series then inches up to and fluctuates around 2.5 in February 2025. The series decreases to and hovers between around 2.4 and 2.5 through March, declines to about 2.2 in mid-April 2025, and steadily increases to and fluctuates around 2.4 percent through early June, ending at approximately 2.3.

Note: The data are at a business-day frequency and are estimated from smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yield curves.

Figure 10. Civilian unemployment rate

Figure 11. Unemployment rate, by race and ethnicity